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Equivalent Capitalisation Rate - RPI Ground Rents

An advanced tool for calculating the Equivalent Capitalisation Rate for RPI linked ground rents (using annuity formulas, geometric series & dicounted cash flow models) taking into account three fundamental factors:

  • The frequency of rent reviews (eg. every 5, 10, 15, 25, 33 years)
  • The RPI rate percentage
  • Time until the next rent review / since last review

Equivalent Capitalisation Rate Calculator

For RPI Linked Ground Rent Review Leases

Cap Rate: 6.5%
RPI: 2%
Frequency: 25 years
Next Review: 10 years
years

Impact of RPI and Review Frequency on Equivalent Capitalisation Rate

Where ground is linked to RPI with fixed rent review periods, the tribunal have not been consistent in deciding upon an Equivalent Capitilisation Rate. We have seen 3.35% applied in the All Saints Case, 4.5% applied commonly elsewhere. But shouldn't the rate be based on maths and accounting?

A traditional tribunal model that applies a standardised equivalent ground rent capitalisation rate on RPI linked rent review lease, such as 4.5%, is not ideal as it overlooks key factors that significantly affect ground rent valuation. These include the number of years until the next ground rent review, the frequency of rent reviews, and the average RPI growth rate. Each of these elements influences the present value of future cash flows by determining when and how much rents will adjust in line with inflation.

Using a fixed rate oversimplifies the valuation process, which can lead to inaccurate capitalisations that fail to reflect the unique terms of a lease or prevailing economic conditions. In contrast, a mathematical approach, such as a modified annuity formula with geometric growth, accounts for these variables: years until the next review (r), review frequency (n), and RPI growth rate (i). This formula calculates a tailored equivalent capitalisation rate (c = 1 / f) by aggregating the present value of future rents, adjusted for periodic increases and timing differences.

By relying on rigorous mathematics, this method ensures a more accurate and fair valuation that considers all relevant factors. Decisions based on such a formula are far more robust than those using a standardised rate, as they are grounded in the specific characteristics of the lease, providing a precise and equitable outcome.

How the Equivalent Yield Ground Rent Calculator Works

The equation used to calculate the equivalent capitalisation rate in this context is a form of a present value of an annuity with geometric growth, specifically tailored for a series of cash flows that increase periodically at a constant growth rate (RPI) and are discounted at a fixed rate. It can be classified as a modified annuity formula or growing annuity valuation model, adjusted for discrete rent review periods and a partial initial period.

The general structure combines:

  • An annuity formula for the initial period (\( a_r \)) and subsequent full review periods (\( a_n \)).
  • A geometric series to account for the periodic growth in cash flows at each review (\( S \)).
  • A discount factor (\( d \)) to adjust for the time until the next review.
  • An optional final partial period (\( a_p \)) for any remaining years.

Mathematically, it resembles a discounted cash flow (DCF) model for a growing perpetuity with periodic step increases, commonly used in real estate valuation for ground rent capitalisation. The equivalent capitalisation rate (\( c = 1 / f \)) is derived from the present value factor (\( f \)), which aggregates these components.

A traditional tribunal model that applies a standardised equivalent ground rent, such as 4.5%, is not ideal as it overlooks key factors that significantly affect ground rent valuation. These include the number of years until the next ground rent review, the frequency of rent reviews, and the average RPI growth rate. Each of these elements influences the present value of future cash flows by determining when and how much rents will adjust in line with inflation.

Using a fixed rate oversimplifies the valuation process, which can lead to inaccurate capitalisations that fail to reflect the unique terms of a lease or prevailing economic conditions. In contrast, a mathematical approach, such as a modified annuity formula with geometric growth, accounts for these variables: years until the next review (r), review frequency (n), and RPI growth rate (i). This formula calculates a tailored equivalent capitalisation rate (c = 1 / f) by aggregating the present value of future rents, adjusted for periodic increases and timing differences.

Full reasoning for the formula

To explain the formula for calculating the equivalent capitalisation rate step by step. We'll build it iteratively, starting from the simplest case and adding one layer of complexity at a time. This way, it's like constructing a house: we start with the foundation and add walls, roof, and details gradually. The goal is to find the equivalent capitalization rate (c), which tells us what single rate to use to turn all future rents into one lump sum today, accounting for inflation (RPI) and review timings.

Step 1: The Basic Case – Fixed Rent with No Growth or Reviews

Imagine the rent is fixed at £100 per year forever (or for a long term like 90 years), with no increases due to inflation and no reviews. We just need to discount future payments back to today's value using a fixed capitalisation rate (let's call it y, like 6.5%). This is like valuing a simple savings bond that pays the same amount every year.

The present value factor (f) for an annuity (regular payments) over T years is:

\[ f = a_T = \frac{1 - (1 + y)^{-T}}{y} \]

Here, a_T is the annuity factor for T years. The equivalent capitalisation rate c is just the rent divided by the total present value, but since rent is £100, c = 100 / (100 * f) = 1 / f. (We multiply by 100 to get it as a percentage later.)

Why start here? This ignores RPI changes entirely, so it's too basic for real life where rents grow with inflation. But it shows the core idea: future money is worth less today.

Step 2: Adding Continuous Annual Growth from RPI

Now, let's introduce the changing RPI rate. Assume rents grow every year by a constant RPI growth rate (call it g, like 2.4% or 0.024 in decimal). So, the rent starts at £100 but becomes £100 * (1 + g) next year, £100 * (1 + g)^2 the year after, and so on. This is a "growing annuity."

The present value factor f now accounts for this growth:

\[ f = \sum_{k=1}^{T} \frac{(1 + g)^{k-1}}{(1 + y)^k} = \frac{1 - \left( \frac{1 + g}{1 + y} \right)^T}{y - g} \] (if y ≠ g)

If y = g, it simplifies to f = T / (1 + y).

Then, c = 1 / f.

This step is better because it factors in RPI growth making future rents bigger, so the lump sum today should be higher (meaning c is lower). But in reality, ground rents don't grow every year, they're reviewed in chunks (like every 5 or 25 years), so we need to adjust for that periodicity.

Step 3: Making Growth Periodic (Every n Years) with Full Reviews Only

Next, we account for the frequency of rent reviews (n years, like every 5 or 25 years). Rents stay fixed within each n-year block but jump by the full RPI growth at each review: the growth factor G = (1 + g)^n.

Assume the lease starts right after a review (no initial wait), and T is a multiple of n for simplicity. Number of full blocks: m = T / n.

The present value factor f breaks into blocks:

First block (years 1 to n): fixed rent, so a_n = \frac{1 - (1 + y)^{-n}}{y}

Next block (years n+1 to 2n): rent * G, discounted back: a_n * (1 + y)^{-n} * G

And so on, up to m blocks.

This forms a geometric series: f = a_n * \sum_{k=0}^{m-1} \left( \frac{G}{(1 + y)^n} \right)^k = a_n * \frac{1 - \delta^m}{1 - \delta} where \delta = \frac{G}{(1 + y)^n} (if \delta ≠ 1)

If \delta = 1, the sum is m.

Then, c = 1 / f.

This is more realistic for ground rents, as it captures "stepped" growth every n years instead of smooth annual increases. The frequency n matters: shorter n means more frequent jumps, closer to continuous growth, affecting c.

Step 4: Adding the Years Until the Next Review (r)

Real leases might not start right after a review—there could be r years (1 to n) until the next one. So, add an initial partial period with fixed rent.

The present value factor f now has:

  • Initial r years: fixed rent, a_r = \frac{1 - (1 + y)^{-r}}{y}
  • Then, the remaining (T - r) years, assuming it's a multiple of n for now: like Step 3, but starting after r years, so discount the blocks by d = (1 + y)^{-r}, and the first block after r has rent jumped by G already.

So, the blocks part becomes: a_n * d * G * \sum_{k=0}^{m-1} \delta^k = a_n * d * S where S = G * \frac{1 - \delta^m}{1 - \delta} (if \delta ≠ 1), or S = G * m if \delta = 1.

Full f = a_r + a_n * d * S

Then, c = 1 / f.

Why add r? It accounts for how soon the first growth hits; if r is small (next review soon), growth starts earlier, lowering c; if r is large, growth is delayed, raising c.

Step 5: Handling Any Total Term T (With Remainder p Years)

Finally, T - r might not be a multiple of n, so there are m full blocks after the initial r, plus a leftover partial block of p = (T - r) mod n years at the end.

The final partial: after m full blocks, rent has grown by G^{m+1} (since the last review jumps it for the remainder), discounted by d * (1 + y)^{-m n} = d * \delta^m / G (but simplified in formula).

In the full equation: add the term if p > 0: a_p * d * G * \delta^m (wait, actually G^{m+1} but adjusted, wait, no: after m blocks, the growth for the partial is G^{m}, but let's use the precise version from earlier).

The complete f = a_r + a_n * d * S + \begin{cases} a_p * d * G * \delta^m & \text{if } p > 0 \\ 0 & \text{if } p = 0 \end{cases}

Where m = \lfloor (T - r) / n \rfloor, and all other terms as before.

Then, the equivalent capitalisation rate c = 1 / f.

This final step ensures the formula works for any lease length, capturing every nuance: RPI growth (g), review frequency (n), time to next review (r), and total term (T).